Economic Monitor: Budget taxes to bite, sales volumes trend upwards
01 November 20242 Minute Read
Harvir DhillonEconomist | BRC
Kris Hamer PhDDirector of Insight | BRC
Report Excerpt
The Autumn Budget introduced several key policy changes, including tax increases for employers and higher infrastructure spending. This shift suggests a less restrictive fiscal approach than that of the previous government in March, which may add to inflationary pressures in the coming year, potentially impacting consumer spending.
Harvir Dhillon, Economist
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Overview
Key Data
- GDP grew 0.2% in August, following no growth in July. Services activity expanded marginally by 0.1%, and the largest upward contributors were professional, scientific and technical activities.
- Inflation notably eased in September and the Consumer Price Index annual rate fell to 1.7%. Of the headline rate, 0.2% emanates from food, 0.6% from restaurants and hotels, and 0.5% from recreation and culture. Housing and energy costs are now pushing down by less on inflation, shaving off 0.2% from the headline figure.
- The BRC-KPMG measure of retail sales rose by 2.0% in September (compared to the previous year), up from 1.0% growth in August.
- In the three months to August 2024, average regular pay (excluding bonuses) was estimated at £648 per week in nominal terms (not adjusted for inflation), higher than the estimate for a year earlier (£620 per week) and £488 per week in real terms (constant 2015 prices), higher than the estimate for a year earlier (£481 per week).